Why I'm Buying Aaron Rodgers' 2005 Topps Chrome RC
Aaron Rodgers had an incredible 2020 season. During his MVP run and the Packers’ success early in the Playoffs, Rodgers’ cards saw significant appreciation. His cards pulled back a bit as soon as the Packers were bounced by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Are there further declines ahead, or is this a buying opportunity? I’m betting on price appreciation from this point forward. Why? His cards seem undervalued relative to other top QBs. Let’s compare the PSA 9 & PSA 10 populations, valuations, and resulting market caps* (thanks Card Ladder) of the core RCs of some of the top QBs of the last ~20 years.
1998 Topps Chrome Peyton Manning
PSA 9: Pop = 3,734 | Value: $606 | Market Cap: $2.27m
PSA 10: Pop = 1,211 | Value: $4,250 | Market Cap: $5.15m
Total Market Cap: $7.42m
2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady
PSA 9: Pop = 1,506 | Value: $6,950 | Market Cap: $10.47m
PSA 10: Pop = 1,063 | Value: $22,100 | Market Cap: $23.49m
Total Market Cap: $33.96m
2005 Topps Chrome Aaron Rodgers
PSA 9: Pop = 500 | Value: $1,200 | Market Cap: $0.60m
PSA 10: Pop = 232 | Value: $3,529 | Market Cap: $0.82m
Total Market Cap: $1.42m
2017 Panini Prizm Patrick Mahomes
PSA 9: Pop = 1,821 | Value: $2,700 | Market Cap: $4.92m
PSA 10: Pop = 856 | Value: $10,000 | Market Cap: $8.56m
Total Market Cap: $13.48m
Some of the numbers jump out at you - there are only 832 2005 Topps Chrome Aaron Rodgers RCs in PSA 9 & PSA 10. On top of that, Beckett has graded less then 700 total. When all is said and done, that is a pretty limited supply of the core RC for one of the best QBs of all time. The value should be higher. If you look at the market cap of the Aaron Rodgers RC, it’s only $1.42m. The next closest market cap is that of Peyton Manning’s Topps Chrome RC at $7.42m. That’s a huge gap!
Because of the relatively low market cap of Aaron Rodgers’ 2005 Topps Chrome RC, I’m continuing to invest. He is an all-time great. He has 3 MVPs. He is a Super Bowl champion. He is a sure fire HOFer. And what happens if he wins another Super Bowl? His cards will surely appreciate significantly. And if he doesn’t? His cards will likely continue to appreciate steadily as more collectors come to the market. I love the asymmetrical risk here.
BTW - if you do this analysis on Drew Brees’ 2001 Topps RC, you may conclude that his cards are relatively undervalued as well. I’m not so sure. I’m not sure what to make of the fact that his core base RC seems to be Topps paper instead of Topps Chrome or Bowman Chrome.
Feel free to share your thoughts.
Note: *market cap = total population of a particular card multiplied by the value of that card.
