1933 Goudey Babe Ruth Valuations
The yellow Babe Ruth (#53) is the most valuable of the four Babe Ruth cards in the 1933 Goudey set. According to VintageCardPrices, the average recent sales for the four versions in a PSA 3 are as follows:
#53 (yellow): $4942 (1.35x)
#144 (rainbow): $3697 (1.01x)
#149 (red): $4330 (1.18x)
#181 (green): $3671 (1.00x)
There are two things that likely drive differences in value: population totals and visual appeal. Let’s assume that visual appeal is the same across all versions (I like #144 the most and #181 the least). Do the differences in the populations justify the price differences? Let’s take a look.
#53 (yellow): 930 graded by PSA (71% of the most populous, should be 1.41x the value of the most populous)
#144 (rainbow): 1302 (100%, 1.00x)
#149 (red): 946 (73%, 1.37x)
#181 (green): 1062 (82%, 1.22x)
Based on the populations, the yellow (#53) should be the most expensive, slightly ahead of the red (#149). And it is. However, the price premium on the yellow (#53) seems too high. I think this is a classic case of momentum investing - I think the yellow (#53) is getting a lot of attention and is overheating (I would argue that the same is true for the green Cobb). I would expect the valuations to converge over the longer term. What does that mean? The red (#149) is probably the better investment right now (March 2019)
Also, based strictly on populations, the green (#181) should be valued more than the rainbow (#144). That’s clearly not the case. So what gives? I think that people love the look of the rainbow (#144) and are willing to pay up.
It would seem like buying green (#181) Ruth cards would be the best bet based on the facts above. However, investing in baseball cards can be emotional. Are collectors telling us that they don’t love the green (#181) Ruth? Maybe.
What do you think?