Don't Sleep on the Gold

LeBron James cards have been on fire as of late. Not entirely clear what’s driving it - the fact that he’s an all-time great has been known for about 15 years. Regardless, it doesn’t seem crazy given the fact that every collector needs a LeBron James rookie card in their collection. What does seem crazy is the current market prices of his 2003 Bowman Gold card. Let’s look at the numbers.

BGS has only graded 261 Gold variations. By contrast, 2,021 Base cards have been graded. That’s 7.5x the number of Golds. Logic tells you that the value of the Golds should be 7.5x times that of the Base cards. And given the condition sensitivity of the Gold cards, I would argue that an 8.5 Gold is equivalent to a 9.5 Base. There are only 6 BGS 9 Golds! Therefore, BGS 8.5 Golds should be worth 7.5x the value of BGS 9.5 Base cards. Given that BGS 9.5 Base cards are selling for $300, BGS 8.5 Golds should be trading at $2,250.

As of this posting, BGS 8.5 Golds are selling for $400-$500. Still plenty of room to run.