Asymmetrical Risk: 2012-13 Panini Prizm Auto Anthony Davis RC

Asymmetrical risk is the concept of taking a risk that will produce a return that far surpasses the risk taken. That’s the opportunity associated with buying 2012-13 Panini Prizm Auto Anthony Davis rookie cards. Hear me out.

These cards have been selling for ~$1300 on eBay in BGS 9.5. How much will they be worth if the Lakers win the NBA championship? $2000? Doesn’t seem unreasonable. If the Lakers win the title, it’s likely that AD will play a prominent role alongside LeBron. In addition, the games will be on national TV. This scenario is a great backdrop for increased prices.

The Auto version of Anthony Davis’ rookie card is also underpriced relative to the non-Auto version, which has been fetching ~$600-700. BGS has graded seven times as many non-Autos. SEVEN! If we assume that the demand for both versions is about the same, then the Auto version should be worth seven times as much as the non-Auto version.

Sure, the non-Auto version may be overpriced. But even if it’s worth only $300, the Auto version should be worth $2100. That’s significant upside over where the card is trading today. And what if AD wins the title?

How much will the non-Autos be worth if the Lakers don’t win the title? About the same as they’re worth today.

That’s asymmetrical risk…you know, assuming AD doesn’t get hurt!

Good luck!